Optimal market making under partial information and numerical methods for impulse control games with applications

The topics treated in this thesis are inherently two-fold. The first part considers the problem of a market maker who wants to optimally set bid/ask quotes over a finite time horizon, to maximize her expected utility. The intensities of the orders she receives depend not only on the spreads she quotes, but also on unobservable factors modelled by a hidden Markov chain. This stochastic control problem under partial information is solved by means of stochastic filtering, control and piecewise-deterministic Markov processes theory. The value function is characterized as the unique continuous viscosity solution of its dynamic programming equation. Afterwards, the analogous full information problem is solved and results are compared numerically through a concrete example. The optimal full information spreads are shown to be biased when the exact market regime is unknown, as the market maker needs to adjust for additional regime uncertainty in terms of P&L sensitivity and observable order ow volatility. The second part deals with numerically solving nonzero-sum stochastic differential games with impulse controls. These offer a realistic and far-reaching modelling framework for applications within finance, energy markets and other areas, but the diffculty in solving such problems has hindered their proliferation. Semi-analytical approaches make strong assumptions pertaining very particular cases. To the author's best knowledge, there are no numerical methods available in the literature. A policy-iteration-type solver is proposed to solve an underlying system of quasi-variational inequalities, and it is validated numerically with reassuring results. In particular, it is observed that the algorithm does not enjoy global convergence and a heuristic methodology is proposed to construct initial guesses. Eventually, the focus is put on games with a symmetric structure and a substantially improved version of the former algorithm is put forward. A rigorous convergence analysis is undertaken with natural assumptions on the players strategies, which admit graph-theoretic interpretations in the context of weakly chained diagonally dominant matrices. A provably convergent single-player impulse control solver, often outperforming classical policy iteration, is also provided. The main algorithm is used to compute with high precision equilibrium payoffs and Nash equilibria of otherwise too challenging problems, and even some for which results go beyond the scope of all the currently available theory

A fixed-point policy-iteration-type algorithm for symmetric nonzero-sum stochastic impulse control games

Nonzero-sum stochastic differential games with impulse controls offer a realistic and far-reaching modelling framework for applications within finance, energy markets, and other areas, but the difficulty in solving such problems has hindered their proliferation. Semi-analytical approaches make strong assumptions pertaining to very particular cases. To the author’s best knowledge, the only numerical method in the literature is the heuristic one we put forward in Aïd et al (ESAIM Proc Surv 65:27–45, 2019) to solve an underlying system of quasi-variational inequalities. Focusing on symmetric games, this paper presents a simpler, more precise and efficient fixed-point policy-iteration-type algorithm which removes the strong dependence on the initial guess and the relaxation scheme of the previous method. A rigorous convergence analysis is undertaken with natural assumptions on the players strategies, which admit graph-theoretic interpretations in the context of weakly chained diagonally dominant matrices. A novel provably convergent single-player impulse control solver is also provided. The main algorithm is used to compute with high precision equilibrium payoffs and Nash equilibria of otherwise very challenging problems, and even some which go beyond the scope of the currently available theory

Optimal market making under partial information with general intensities

Starting from the Avellaneda–Stoikov framework, we consider a market maker who wants to optimally set bid/ask quotes over a finite time horizon, to maximize her expected utility. The intensities of the orders she receives depend not only on the spreads she quotes but also on unobservable factors modelled by a hidden Markov chain. We tackle this stochastic control problem under partial information with a model that unifies and generalizes many existing ones under full information, combining several risk metrics and constraints, and using general decreasing intensity functionals. We use stochastic filtering, control and piecewise-deterministic Markov processes theory, to reduce the dimensionality of the problem and characterize the reduced value function as the unique continuous viscosity solution of its dynamic programming equation. We then solve the analogous full information problem and compare the results numerically through a concrete example. We show that the optimal full information spreads are biased when the exact market regime is unknown, and the market maker needs to adjust for additional regime uncertainty in terms of P&L sensitivity and observed order flow volatility. This effect becomes higher, the longer the waiting time in between orders

A policy iteration algorithm for nonzero-sum stochastic impulse games

This work presents a novel policy iteration algorithm to tackle nonzero-sum stochastic impulse games arising naturally in many applications. Despite the obvious impact of solving such problems, there are no suitable numerical methods available, to the best of our knowledge. Our method relies on the recently introduced characterisation of the value functions and Nash equilibrium via a system of quasi-variational inequalities. While our algorithm is heuristic and we do not provide a convergence analysis, numerical tests show that it performs convincingly in a wide range of situations, including the only analytically solvable example available in the literature at the time of writing

A policy iteration algorithm for nonzero-sum stochastic impulse games

Research work conducted during the 22nd edition of CEMRACS, Numerical methods for stochastic models: control, uncertainty quantification, mean-field, July 17 - August 25, CIRM, MarseilleThis work presents a novel policy iteration algorithm to tackle nonzero-sum stochastic impulse games arising naturally in many applications. Despite the obvious impact of solving such problems, there are no suitable numerical methods available, to the best of our knowledge. Our method relies on the recently introduced characterisation of the value functions and Nash equilibrium via a system of quasi-variational inequalities. While our algorithm is heuristic and we do not provide a convergence analysis, numerical tests show that it performs convincingly in a wide range of situations, including the only analytically solvable example available in the literature at the time of writing.JPZ was supported by CNPq, FAPERJ, and the Brazilian-French network in Mathematics.FB gratefully acknowledges support from the Finance for Energy Market Research Centre (FiME)